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Archive for June 20th, 2010

The Dallas Cowboys are settling into their new $1.15 billion dollar home stadium, but much of the talk in the NFL preseason has been about the massive video screen hanging directly over the field of play. In the opening game in the facility, Tennessee Titans punters hit the screen several time in practice and once during the game. That set off a bit of a controversy about the height of the video screen, with some arguing that the board was hung too low.

On Friday, the NFL Rules Committee sided with Cowboys owner Jones, indicating that the board was of adequate height. It also clarified the procedure for kicks that hit the board during play.

Jones has maintained that much of the concern is due to the sheer size of the board, which was hung 90 feet off the field of play”5 feet higher than NFL mandated guidelines. Hes also suggested that Tennessee punters were intentionally trying to hit the board, requiring an effort to kick the ball almost straight up. These shenanigans are typical of preseason, but obviously wont be a factor when the games really count.

The NFL has ruled that if a ball hit the display during play, the clock will be reset and down will be replayed. The replay official will have the authority to review plays to determine if the board came into play during the last two minutes of a half, and the coaches will be able to challenge a play involving the video screen at other times during the game by throwing the red flag. This is similar to rules that already exist for live balls that hit skycams or scoreboard components.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell commented on the situation:

“We will continue to address the particular circumstances in Dallas, giving full consideration to the competitive, safety and fan experience issues involved. The Cowboys have been fully cooperative as we have addressed this subject, and we will continue to work closely with the club on a longer term resolution.”

On his weekly radio show, Cowboys owner Jones gave his take on the NFLs ruling:

“I don’t see it as ultimately an issue. You can anticipate the ball hitting the board from time to time. There’s no reason why this can’t be something for punters to deal with very similar to the way you’d deal with the wind in your face or with elements; rain, sleet or snow.”

Former Cowboys coach Jimmie Johnson also weighed in on the video board issue:

“If there’s anything wrong, it’s that people are going to watch the video board and not the game. It is so dominating, but I think it’s so cool. I think it’s great.”

The Cowboys play their final preseason game at the new stadium this Saturday as they host the San Francisco 49ers.

Ross Everett is a experienced freelance writer who covers travel, poker and sports handicapping. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, falconry and scuba diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.

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Betting on sports ‘futures’ is an enjoyable and potentially profitable way to wager, but there are several potential risks that can lead to losses. Here’s a rundown of things to avoid:

You gotta shop around: More specifically, you have to ‘shop points’ just as you would with a straight bet. This is crucial in all forms of sports betting but particularly key with futures wagers. There are often greater variances in the prices from book to book on future plays than any other type of wagering proposition. The reason for this is simple–most books are less concern with what the ‘other guys’ are doing as they are with keeping their own position ‘in balance’. All in all, the sports betting marketplace just doesn’t react as quickly to changing futures prices as it does to individual game lines.

Don’t fixate on picking the winner from a competitive field: This may sound like strange advice, but from a theoretical standpoint it makes perfect sense. As with every other element of sport wagering its crucial to always focus not on winners and losers, but on the value you’re getting on individual bets. For example, in most years there are several teams with a realistic shot of winning at the start of the NCAA basketball tournament. The problem is that these top teams invariably offer low paybacks that are less than their ‘true odds’ of winning. Every team is subject to the same variables like injuries, slumps, bad matchups but backing teams that are ‘under the radar’ at higher prices offer more compensation for these ‘risks’.

In mathematical terms, we’re simply not being offered odds on a favorite that offer a good value in comparison with the ‘true odds’ of the event occurring. Let’s say we bet Duke at +200 to win the NCAA tournament. If we could magically play the NCAA tournament over 100 times, would Duke come out on top more than 33 times? If not, they’re a poor value at the price. At a higher price, I might be interested but at +200 the value is simply not there.

Note that the more competitive the market, the more difficult it is to find good value on a favorite. In a smaller field, or in a field with one dominant competitor it can be easier. For example, say the UFC were to have a tournament involving heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar and three male figure skaters. Even if Lesnar was slightly injured, or not at the top of his game he’d essentially have a 100% chance of beating the smaller, effeminate men who are untrained to fight. If a book installed Lesnar as a -1000 favorite in this spot, it could still be considered a good value. It’s never easy to risk a lot to win a little, but from strictly a mathematical standpoint it makes sense.

Don’t try to make a huge profit with little risk: Sports betting provides few opportunities to make a ‘big killing’. It may happen occasionally, but even the big payouts when it occurs doesn’t make chasing big longshots a good value. If you’re serious about sports betting it is crucial to maintain your focus on the underlying numbers and look for value at all times. If you want to take a longshot at a huge jackpot, play the lottery but don’t try to do it at a sportsbook.

Wagering value is just as important at the bottom of the barrel as it is at the top. Just because you’re getting a huge potential payback on a big dog doesn’t make it a good value. Make sure that the payback you’re getting presents an overlay situation–even on a huge underdog.

Don’t bet one-sided futures or propositions: Though many of these are not futures per se, a lot of sportsbooks offer silly propositions on nonsport events as a way to get publicity, or just to be funny. Its important to make a distinction between this type of silly bet and more realistic nonsport propositions which frequently present good wagering value. Im talking the really outlandish stuff here. Not too long ago, a sportsbook posted a line on Martians landing on earth and painting the White House red by the end of the year. The “YES” was +2500 or thereabouts, which is far from reflective of the “true odds” of this unlikely event. Even if you’re the type that collects classic Art Bell shows on tape and believes in UFOs you wouldn’t place the probability of this happening at more than a fraction of a percent. The book only offered the “YES” side of the proposition, meaning that you couldn’t lay even a huge price on the more likely outcome. Another book had a futures offering for what would happen first with Ashton Kutcher, Demi Moore and Bruce Willis. All of the options were very unlikely–Ashton and Bruce fighting on PPV and my favorite–and the longest odds–Ashton, Bruce and Demi hopping in bed together and releasing a porno video documenting the event. You’d receive a sizable payback if any of the events ever transpired, but I’m not exactly sure how to compute the “true odds” on “when pigs fly.

Ross Everett is a well known freelance writer who covers travel, poker and sports handicapping. He is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, fencing and deep sea diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.

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Despite a subpar game from quarterback Tim Tebow and a determined effort from the host Mississippi State Bulldogs, the Florida Gators remained undefeated by scrapping out a 29-19 victory. Florida led by only 3 points at halftime before pulling away in the fourth quarter. The usually efficient and accurate Tebow had two touchdowns returned for interceptions and passed for only 127 yards with no touchdowns. The usually accommodating Tebow left the stadium without speaking to reporters, clearly upset with his performance.

College football betting enthusiasts who took the +22′ with Mississippi State as a home underdog enjoyed an easy pointspread cover. The Bulldogs improved their ATS record to 4-3 with the cover, while Florida evened their college football pointspread record to 3-3. The 48 combined points scored just managed to stay UNDER the posted total of 50. Florida has gone UNDER in five of six lined games this season while Mississippi State has gone UNDER in 4 of their seven games.

While Tebow wasn’t talking, head coach Urban Meyer accepted much of the blame for his team’s substandard performance:

“I did not coach well tonight. I put Tim in some tough situations. As an offense, we’re not well right now. Tim’s not trying to be a hero. But we might be asking him to do too much.”

The Gators’ are 76th in the nation in red zone efficiency, and Meyer took the blame for that fact as well:

“The problem is they’ve got a coach that wants to score so damn bad that he’s pressing them and some of those guys aren’t ready for that.”

Defensive end Pernell McPhee gave Tebow fits all night and talked about his team’s effort after the game:

“We knew they liked to get the ball to Tebow there. I felt like we frustrated them and made them do some new things they did not usually do tonight. They got in the I formation tonight and that is the first time I have ever seen them do that.”

Florida led by only 3 points heading into the final quarter but used a Chris Raney 8 yard rush and a Dustin Doe interception return for a touchdown to open up some breathing room. Jonathan Banks cut into the lead for Mississippi State late in the game with an interception return for touchdown of his own.

The Gators face a tough challenge next weekend as they enter into their matchup against University of Georgia-what used to be known as ‘The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party’. Florida is a -16 favorite in the contest. They’ll face Vanderbilt the next week before heading to Columbia, SC for a game against the University of South Carolina and their longtime coach Steve Spurrier. Mississippi State will play at Kentucky as+3′ road underdogs next weekend before a bye week. They’ll return to action on November–th at home against the University of Alabama.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer and respected authority on World Cup soccer betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and betting odds sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

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From a business standpoint, the UFCs first trip to Germany will clearly fall short of their success in the UK. From poor ticket sales to a downright hostile German media, its been one headache after another for Dana White and company. The UFC 99 card itself turned out to be an entertaining affair highlighted by a spectacular main event between Rich Franklin and Wanderlei Silva. Franklin would ultimately win the unanimous decision victory, but the fight itself far exceeded the expectations of most fans.

For the most part, Franklin picked Silva apart throughout the course of the fight (to quote UFC color commentator Joe Rogan) and deserved the unanimous decision verdict. What made the fight exceptional were the occasional glimpses of the old Axe Murderer. Late in the second and third rounds, Silva tagged Franklin with hard punches that left him clearly stunned. He did well to weather the storm and maintain control of the fight, but the uncertainty was enough to make the main event a very entertaining and exciting fight. Silva demurred on talk of retirement afterwards, though his tone gave some indication that hes leaning in that direction.

In the co-main event, heavyweight phenom Cain Velasquez survived a few nervous moments to put in a wall to wall domination of Cheick Kongo. Velasquez was rocked by Kongos punches early in rounds one and two, but quickly recovered to take the fight to the ground where he mauled the Frenchman. The result was an impressive victory for Velasquez over a top level opponent, but his struggles against Kongos standup game left several unanswered questions. The most compelling concern, of course, is that Velesquez might have a weak chin and simply not be able to take a punch particularly well. His problems could also be tactical or simply a case of not having enough patience”rushing his takedown attempts and eating punches rather than work for a less risky opportunity. In any case, his stand up defense needs to be upgraded significantly before he can think about competing against the likes of Brock Lesnar or Frank Mir.

The event also featured the UFC return of former PRIDE open weight GP champion Mirko Cro Cop. Cro Cop was making his return to action from knee surgery, and the Croatian striking machine got off to a slow start against overmatched Mostapha Al-Turk as he clearly sought to protect his rebuilt wheels. Of particular note was the fact that Cro Cop didnt throw a kick the entire fight”his bread and butter during his PRIDE dominance, which evoked the mantra right leg hospital, left leg cemetery. Once he let his hands go, however, he demonstrated emphatically that hes still got serious power. He ended the fight late in the first round by flooring Al-Turk with an overhand left followed up with some hammer fists on the ground.

Perennial contender Mike Swick looked impressive as he defeated Ben Saunders via 2nd round TKO. After an uneventful first five minutes, Swick let his hands go and his impressive handspeed proved no match for his adversary. Veteran lightweight Caol Uno returned to the UFC after a five year absence, losing a decision to Spencer Fisher in a somewhat tedious tactical affair. In the opening match of the live PPV, Dan Hardy won a hard fought split decision over Marcus Davis. The two men had feuded back and forth in the UK media, and while the fight may not have settled their differences in a decisive manner it did provide a solid opener to the evenings fight card.

Ross Everett is a respected freelance writer specializing in travel, poker and sports handicapping. He is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, flower arranging and scuba diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.

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